Here's the AMO plot since 1856:

Source: Wiki

At a glance the correlation with winter temperatures in the UK looks to be either non-existent or weak, but I will be happy to stand corrected on this.

---

At a glance the correlation with winter temperatures in the UK looks to be either non-existent or weak, but I will be happy to stand corrected on this.

Here's another chart (sources: MetOffice, NOAA and Tutiempo)

It shows CET, AMO, plus the number of ice days and days with sleet or snow falling at Manston. I've also added days of just snow falling - as you can see, the majority of "snow falling" days are actually just sleet. Click for a bigger version.

My conclusions:

• The 80s really were special!


• Ice days have been much less frequent since the switch away from a negative AMO


• The amount of "pure snowfall" days has fallen, but not as much as the number of ice days


• Everything's become just that bit more marginal down here

The marginality is key. It really is a rare thing to get days on end of snow, but when it happens it used to linger for a while (which markedly increased the chance of ice days, once the cold air aloft had moved away). With more marginality, what little does fall gets washed away or simply melts that much faster. Snow depths here have become much less since the 90s - if you counted snow depth days (simply adding the snow depth at 9am, in centimetres, each day there's a cover) you'd find a startling drop since 1997. Again, 2005 is an exception here as it did manage a slushy covering for several days in a row.

The snow:sleet ratio for the decades from the above data is as follows - a higher percentage means more snow dayes versus sleet days:

72-80: 17:81 (17%)

81-90: 38:86 (31%)

91-00: 11:52 (17%)

01-10: 19:53 (26%)

11-16: 6:33 (15%)

As can be seen, again the 80s come out as special. The 90s don't, which is interesting as that decade had plenty of ice days and was the last time we had icicles here and deep powder snow. The 00s (whatever you want to call them) have a high ratio too, but this isn't due to 2010 (which only had 3 "pure snow" days), no, it's 2008 which had a large number of "pure snow" days - at 6, it contributed a third of the decade's total. Despite all that snow, there were no ice days - a key difference to earlier decades, as it meant the snow that fell thawed every day.

Phew. What turned out as a simple exercise turned into a marathon, but yet again it shows our winters down here have changed in the last 20 years. I'd be interested to see figures from our friends further north and further inland!

 

 

---

Interesting chart I saw on Twitter: trend in 300mb heights from 1950 to now in the winter months. Tells the picture well as regards the decline of the NW Europe winter.

 

---

This maybe off topic - but this USA winter 2017/18 forecast by Mike suggests that La Nina will bring milder and drier than average weather for the southern and eastern states and wetter across the Ohio valley with the cold locked up into Canada or interior NW:

An interesting watch anyway. He goes into the Ocean temps, analogues and then modeling etc.



Usually a milder USA winter esp if it's milder and drier along the south and SE all the way up the eastern sea board - can mean a colder than average winter for the UK and NW Europe. - It has been the case in the past.

---

So much development of colder waters going on in the equatorial pacific lately! This winter will be an interesting one! - it does look like the models maybe playing catch up' because we were all forecast/predicted to go into an El Nino by this winter with a few outliers even pointing toward a super Nino like in 2015, and now it looks like we could have a LA Nina - possibly a moderate one! So such a big flip!

---

So much development of colder waters going on in the equatorial pacific lately! This winter will be an interesting one! - it does look like the models maybe playing catch up' because we were all forecast/predicted to go into an El Nino by this winter with a few outliers even pointing toward a super Nino like in 2015, and now it looks like we could have a LA Nina - possibly a moderate one! So such a big flip!

Who has been predicting a super El Nino? I'm not aware of any forecasters who have been forecasting this.

---

 

Who has been predicting a super El Nino? I'm not aware of any forecasters who have been forecasting this.

The models - back until around May into June there were a few outliers that had El Nino 2+ above normal - was also watching Gav Weather videos but the vast were pointing towards a weak La Nina . But since around June/July we have gone neutral and into weak la Nina and now we are forecast to go into moderate La Nina.

So surely the CANSIPS, JMA, ECMWF, JAMSTEC etc will start to cool down - many shower above average temperatures and milder weather for autumn and winter months - so perhaps they could start to show colder than average and drier soon!?>

---

What do you make of this? - pause this around 40 secs:

---

What do you make of this? - pause this around 40 secs:

https://youtu.be/Q0xXDUDtS5A

 

The fact it starts off saying September 2017  with Temps across europe not getting above 1*c tells me that this is probably not worth watching.

---

The fact it starts off saying September 2017  with Temps across europe not getting above 1*c tells me that this is probably not worth watching.

 

I think they're anomaly figures, Russ  

---

 

 

I think they're anomaly figures, Russ  

It looks quite plausible with a mixture of Euro high for November and something like a Bartlett for December. January shows a complete switch around to an easterly-dominated month: not sure what signals there are for that but you'd bet against it....

---

As all the October indices are now in, here’s an early look at how things could pan out for the early part of the coming Winter season.

I’ve determined that the current analogues for this stage of Autumn 2017 are:

1962 (ENSO, QBO and Solar cycle match)
1967 (ENSO, QBO and Solar cycle match)
1984 (ENSO, Solar Cycle and September Synoptic match)
2015 (N. Atlantic SST profile, Arctic Ice Extent and Sept Synoptic match)

1985 is a weaker analogue (ENSO, Solar Cycle), but did match quite well with August 2017 synoptic patterns.

So, for October, I still see an anticyclonic signal (as I mentioned in the Autumn thread), perhaps more so for the south/SE Britain now, with a dominant W/SW flow over much of the country especially in the north. The current long-range models are not showing this more Anticyclonic theme at the moment, but I think come the second half it will turn generally drier and more settled overall. Likely to be a rather mild month, and on the dry side especially in the south.

November is an interesting one this year. The Novembers of 1962 and 1985 were both cold and wintry with frequent N & E winds. Nov 1984 was mild and wet, and of course Nov 2015 was extremely mild and zonal. Very contrasting Novembers there! However I think there are clues to determine which direction November 2017 will take. Nov 2015 can probably be discounted because of the extreme El Nino development that occurred, and it does look like October 2017 is more or less running closer to October 1984 (synoptically) than the other years. So my prognosis would be a November this year more akin to Nov 1984, that is fairly mild and unsettled overall, with some spells of SE and E winds, maybe bringing a little wintriness to some locations briefly.

Like November, there is another split in the matches showing for December 2017, so it’s hard to tell which direction it could go at the moment!  If we go with 1984 again for the time being, then that suggests a mildish and fairly unsettled December with a Russian High dominating, bringing SE winds at times.

So at the moment, I would say “no” to an early Winter, although if we really see a strong Anticyclonic dominance in the second half of October, I think it could be game on for a wintry November!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

---

Thanks, Andy J. Shows how difficult it is to get a pattern match. There's always some crucial factor which doesn't fit! But an interesting read.

I liked Retron's graphs for Manston winters. It's funny - I looked at those plots, and my first thought was how little variation there actually has been in terms of weather over the last 70 years. Despite the obvious cycle of the AMO in the bottom line, the only real standouts for me were just how abnormally cold 1963 was, and how unyielding was the ice down there in 1985. Other than that, if you weren't actually living there and getting frustrated by the absence of the specific, Siberian easterly you crave, then you'd glance at those lines and say, what's the big deal? They just go up and down from start to finish. (Admittedly it doesn't help that the CET had the same value 70 years ago at the start of the graph as it did last year! Coincidence, I know.)

Going back to the figures on the previous page, for Manston winter temperatures, again I was surprised at how little the mean has actually varied from start to finish. Especially if you were to strip out the extremes of 1963, 1985, Dec. 2010 and Dec. 2015.

On the other hand, I suppose the latter actually supports your point in a way: of the four events which really do stand out from the norm, the three cold ones were in the past, while the mild one was in the present.

But extraordinary events aside, I'm still sceptical about whether the overall, year-in, year-out, 70-year data actually do illustrate any fundamental change.

I think the best summary was the one in your last post - that memorable cold events are so marginal in a maritime climate, that any deviation from the norm renders them suddenly impossible to achieve. So what on the ground, to someone living in Leysdown-on Sea, manifests itself as frustratingly boring weather and a real change in the winter experience, might equally appear utterly unremarkable to me, who's never lived there and still can't get over the once-in-several-lifetimes glory of the December we experienced here in 2010.

---

Looking like it will stay mild and pleasantly warm for most of the eastern USA: - at least for the next two weeks!

---

I think the best summary was the one in your last post - that memorable cold events are so marginal in a maritime climate, that any deviation from the norm renders them suddenly impossible to achieve. So what on the ground, to someone living in Leysdown-on Sea, manifests itself as frustratingly boring weather and a real change in the winter experience, might equally appear utterly unremarkable to me, who's never lived there and still can't get over the once-in-several-lifetimes glory of the December we experienced here in 2010.

The point was that we don't get midwinter easterlies any more, for whatever reason. Some parts of the UK, such as where I am, rely on them for severe cold.

I would like nothing more than to see the 21-year drought ended, but as ever it's impossible to predict when it'll end. What I will say, though, is going back 100 years there's never been such a prolonged absense of them.

Of course, if you live somewhere that can get similar conditions without requiring an easterly, you'd not have noticed!

---

Looking like it will stay mild and pleasantly warm for most of the eastern USA: - at least for the next two weeks!

But the snow is spreading in Siberia

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

---

 

The point was that we don't get midwinter easterlies any more, for whatever reason. Some parts of the UK, such as where I am, rely on them for severe cold.

I would like nothing more than to see the 21-year drought ended, but as ever it's impossible to predict when it'll end. What I will say, though, is going back 100 years there's never been such a prolonged absense of them.

Of course, if you live somewhere that can get similar conditions without requiring an easterly, you'd not have noticed!

I just feel that the perfect, midwinter easterly you need down there is no more than another marginal event. Elsewhere in the country  the timing, source and angle of attack doesn't have to be as precise as needed in coastal Essex. As you mentioned, such an event did pop up in Feb. 2005, but was just too late in the month to be fully effective. At a higher latitude or altitude the timing may not have mattered. Similarly a blast may not have to originate from so far away and track as precisely westwards, if you live elsewhere. 

That's why I'm not entirely convinced that there's been any kind of fundamental change; just the same mixture of possible set-ups occurring, but without the very precise one you need. The weather could come repeatedly from the east from October to March, for years on end, without necessarily delivering exactly the right set-up in that relatively small window of opportunity you have down there.

(You often mention, with regard to Feb. 1985, that your grandmother(?) warned you at the time that this sort of thing was rare.)

---

 

I just feel that the perfect, midwinter easterly you need down there is no more than another marginal event. Elsewhere in the country  the timing, source and angle of attack doesn't have to be as precise as needed in coastal Essex. As you mentioned, such an event did pop up in Feb. 2005, but was just too late in the month to be fully effective. At a higher latitude or altitude the timing may not have mattered. Similarly a blast may not have to originate from so far away and track as precisely westwards, if you live elsewhere. 

That's why I'm not entirely convinced that there's been any kind of fundamental change; just the same mixture of possible set-ups occurring, but without the very precise one you need. The weather could come repeatedly from the east from October to March, for years on end, without necessarily delivering exactly the right set-up in that relatively small window of opportunity you have down there.

(You often mention, with regard to Feb. 1985, that your grandmother(?) warned you at the time that this sort of thing was rare.)

I don't think it is all that marginal

I think Retron is right about this. You need a blocking High Pressure over Scandinavia or Northern Russia (maybe Iceland)  to feed cold air with a long continental track and then across the North Sea to pick up moisture (as in Lake Effect).

In recent years we have had some near misses but one of 3 events seems to just mess up the scenario (1) It only lasts a couple of days before collapsing (2) It regresses back east to let the Atlantic back in as far as the UK or (3) It slips south and feeds in South-Easterlies which can be cold but don't pick up Lake Effect mositure

It's not just the Essex Coast - it is the main snow bringer all the way down the Eastern UK from Newcastle to Kent and including London on some occasions

I see no reason why we can't get lucky in the future though - even this winter

 

---

 

I don't think it is all that marginal

I think Retron is right about this. You need a blocking High Pressure over Scandinavia or Northern Russia (maybe Iceland)  to feed cold air with a long continental track and then across the North Sea to pick up moisture (as in Lake Effect).

In recent years we have had some near misses but one of 3 events seems to just mess up the scenario (1) It only lasts a couple of days before collapsing (2) It regresses back east to let the Atlantic back in as far as the UK or (3) It slips south and feeds in South-Easterlies which can be cold but don't pick up Lake Effect mositure

It's not just the Essex Coast - it is the main snow bringer all the way down the Eastern UK from Newcastle to Kent and including London on some occasions

I see no reason why we can't get lucky in the future though - even this winter

 

We've had frigid and snow-bearing easterlies in recent years, though.

In Jan 2010 we had one from around the 8th/9th lasting several days (we had snow lying on the ground for about 3/4 weeks)

The late Nov/Dec 2010 brilliant spell had a mix of synoptics, but the early days of the big freeze had several consecutive days of an easterly flow.

In Jan 2013 and, more especially, March 2013 we had spells of easterlies that brought widespread snow.

The difference was that in all of the above cases, the easterly feed was coldest further north, with the blocking high located either over Iceland or more northern Scandinavia.

The March 13 easterly was particularly notable for me because easterlies normally bring zilch in terms of snow, as the Pennines act as a block (even Jan 87 brought a sum total of a 10 minute flurry). However, the specific direction of that event delivered several inches of snow IMBY - and relatively deep drifts where we don't usually get drifts!

I can also remember a few events in the last 10 or so years where an easterly flow has delivered serious falls of snow in the SE - the famous Thames Streamer, and that dumping in Leatherhead where Bren posted pics of snow around 30cm deep in HBY.

I guess the point is that the easterlies have been there but, as SFB explains, the cold and snow that they have brought just hasn't been hitting Darren's part of Kent, which needs a specific set-up, which he was lucky to get a few times during his childhood.

---

Pfft Easterlies. Bring on the Greenland High. 😁